Wednesday June 28, 2023
7:45Am
Good morning,
I hope everyone had a great trading day yesterday. Let’s do this!!
First up, let’s look at a daily chart of the S&P 500 SPY ETF. Today SPY was up 1.1% and we did get the bounce off the 20 day moving average and price action is back above all the moving averages, which are now still all positively sloping. So. We still have the bull trend. As I’ve said many times, all the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls because we have the bull trend with the bullish price action. And anytime we’re coming into critical support on decreasing volume, you instantly want to assume we are going to bounce off support because that is the highest probability chance and trading is a game of odds. So right now, if you’re betting against the trend, you very well be right but you are taking the lowest probability trade, even though there is a bearish scenario where we bounce to a lower high and then come down and break down below critical support and then officially have a lower high into a lower low. If you are waiting to get bearish, you need confirmation that we’re breaking the bull trend, which means you have no reason to be bearish until we see a lower high into a lower low. So, for BULLS get the benefit of the doubt, we are still assuming this is going to resolve into a higher low into a higher high. Which means if we hold this support at $430, we are very likely going to SPY 450 and this is going to be our higher low into our higher high. It doesn’t guarantee it’s possible because there is the chance we get the lower low. But the only way I will get bearish is if we get confirmation from the price action, we’re going into a downtrend, which is going to require proof from the bears and the price action to break down. If the price action doesn’t do a lower high into a lower low, you need to stay on the bull because if you don’t trust the price action which tells us we’re likely going higher, you’re going to continue to lose to this market. Still A lot of bears out there are saying we can’t go higher, and they’ve been saying that all year. Critical support on SPY remains $429 to $430 and the support trend line is right around $427. If we’re above this critical support, the bulls are still in control. As far as upside resistance goes, watch 436, the gap closed right around 439 and the previous daily closing high right around $442.
The NASDAQ 100 triple Q’s were up 1.72% today and the triple Q’s also had a nice bounce off of the rising 20 daily moving average and price action is back above all the moving averages and all the moving averages do have a positive slope. So if you’re looking at the triple Q’s, we still have a bull trend with bullish price action. And just like I said with SPY, we are going to need a lower high into a lower low before we can ever say that we’re breaking down and getting bearish and that’s going to require a breakdown at 355 and 347. If we break all of that critical support, we’re likely coming down to fill the gap at $333 and based on looking at the chart that would happen sometime around the middle of July. However, we need confirmation from the price action. We can’t just assume this is going to happen because another likely scenario is that we continue higher and continue to break out. Now with the triple Q’s we are a little overextended and even after this pullback we are still relatively overextended. So I would not be surprised if we get some type of further correction and come down to 355 or 347. However, don’t assume it’s going to happen. You need to wait for price action to confirm it. That means we’re going to need to break down below this previous low at 357. So just let the price action do all the talking and give all of the benefit of the doubt to the bulls because we’re still in a bull trend with bullish price action. So there’s no reason to guess we’re going to break down and make the price action prove it.
On the Dow Jones, we were up .62% and just like the rest of the indices, we bounced off the critical support which I told you was at 336 and price action is back above all the moving averages. So just like the rest of the indices, the Dow Jones is also going right back into the bull trend. Now with the Dow Jones, we’re instantly bearish if we break $336 and then we’re likely coming back down towards $327 to the upside, we’re looking for resistance at $341 and the gap fill just below $343.
On the Russell 2000 I WM ETF, we were up 1.44% and again we bounce off critical support and Price action is back above all the moving averages and the next critical resistance is just above between 184 and 185, just like the rest of the indices. If we get that lower high rejection and then we come down and break down below support, then we can get a lot more bearish on our breakdown below $180 if we get a rejection from a lower height first. So just let the price action do all the talking. You know the critical levels and the only thing that’s going to tell you we’re breaking down.
On the Ark ETF we have 3.39% today bouncing from that support zone between 42 and 43, and we are now breaking back above the resistance just above 43.2. If we get the higher high breakout, it’s going to require a break back over 44.5 and then we’ll likely see the next price target higher just below 46. And the critical support is still down here at the breakout at 40.5. This is crashing down below this negatively sloping 20 daily moving average,
The VIX is still down below 15. So we’re still in a very low fear environment, which is exactly what you’re going to see in a bold trend. So we’re not going to get bearish until we see the big spiking out above 18 to 20.
On Bitcoin, we’re currently up about 1.3% and Bitcoin is trying to break out yet again above 30,500 and I have the next upside price. It’s just below 32,000 and then up there right around 35,000. As you can see from the price action, we are very close to having the 20 daily moving average crossing back over the 50, Emma, which is going to tell us we’re back into the full bold trend. So even if we do start getting a pullback, we are looking for support between 28 and 29,000 before we continue any higher. This is a bull trend. So we’re expecting higher lows and higher highs.
On Amazon stock, we’re up 1.45% today and we’re still holding the breakout above 128 and we still have the bull trend with the price action above all the moving averages and we have the outstanding upside price targets at 133 and 134. You could stay bullish above $125 and the critical support down here at $121, but if we start to lose this support trend line or support at $121, we could go through a full-blown correction that could take us back down towards $113.
On Microsoft stock, we’re up 1.82% today, holding on to all of the moving averages of support, which is the zone right around $334. So if we get that break back over $336, we are likely going to start marching higher yet again towards previous all-time highs right around $350. If we get rejected from 336, look for a retest of support at 323.
On NVIDIA stock, we’re up 3.06% today, bouncing off the rising 20 daily moving average and we have this support zone between. $398 and $406 If we bounce from this support zone and we break back over $427, I will be looking for my price target just below $450. If we break down below #398, the next support lower will be 374.
On Tesla stock, we’re up 3.8% today as we’re bouncing off the rising 20 daily moving average and we’re getting very close to retesting the breakout. And filling the gap between that support zone of 230 to 235. Now there’s many ways this can play out and we can go straight down to that breakout right now and then continue into the bull trend. Or another possibility is that we bounce to a lower high off of the rising 20 daily moving average and then break down and get a deeper correction back down towards the breakout at 2:15 and then. We continue back into the bull trend, higher highs. So no matter how this plays out in the short term, we are expecting a pullback back down towards 230 or at least the gap fill at 2:35. And then we need to see if price action is going to hold that support or if we’re going back down towards 215. Now in the short term, watch the rising 20 daily moving average which is right around 2:42. Because if we can’t break below that then we’re likely going back up higher towards 268 in the previous high at $275.
on Apple stock, we were up 1 1/2 percent today and Apple broke out to another all-time high yet again. And I’m telling you right now, you are not going to see Apple trading at all-time highs at a bear market. So, if you still think this is a bear market, you are being extremely subjective because when you get market moving names like Apple breaking out to all-time highs. Day after day, it is very difficult to convince somebody that’s a bear market. You could say whatever you want, but the price action is doing all the talking and the next upside target is just below $190 and we are bullish as long as we’re above the breakouts at $185 and $182.
The financials, we’re up .8% today trying to hold on into this support zone just below 33. And the only concern I have is that we are still trading below the 200 daily moving average. I’m going to be a lot more bullish if we can start to close above 33.6 the industrials are up 1.2% today bouncing off that support. Break out if we start closing above 106 and continue into this bull trend,
The healthcare sector was down .23% today, still holding the breakout right around 130 to 131. And if we get a bounce from here, I’m still looking for higher targets at 134 and 137.
On the energy sector we are up about 1/4 percent, and it still looks possible to get a lower high rejection because we have the bear trend. So look for a rejection right around the 79.5. And then look for a breakdown below support at 76.6 to fill the gap at 73. So jumping back over to the SMP 500, this is still a bull trend with bullish price action. So even though there is a bearish scenario where we balance from a lower high end break critical support, we are going to need to be patient and wait for the price action to prove it. And until that happens, we are assuming we are going to higher prices. And the next higher price will be SPY $450. So let the price action do all the talking and check your bias at the door. And if you’re waiting to get bearish, you need confirmation from the price action. Bears have been ignoring the chart all year long and have plenty of reasons why. They’re bearish and giving us plenty of fundamental reasons. But nothing matters other than trading with the chart is giving us. And if the chart is going higher, we need to stay bullish.
TRADE OF THE DAY: BUY Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Buy Up to $6.95 From My 95% Allgo
Cheers,
G., Allan Collins
