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The CPI Is Irrelevant. Pay Attention To Price Action!

August 9, 2023
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Wednesday August 09, 2023

G. Allan Collins. Wednesday 9 PM

The S&P 500 SPY ETF was down .67%.today  and closed at 445.75  we have the CPI at 8:30 AM  So let’s get into it. I’ll be brief because I am waiting on my delayed flight to Athens. SPY has critical support a couple of points below where we closed. So critical support is 442 to 444.80 and this is a very critical support zone because we broke out from the June highs right from there, that’s the breakout zone. If the Bulls can’t  hold that retest, that means the buyers have dried up and as I mentioned a few times…August is historically the worst month of the year on average, because of seasonal factors and it is also the least liquid month of the year. Put that together with Big Tech that was up 39% when we called the top. If we get a higher than expected high CPI report, that could spook the market because the entire bear market of last year was built on the belief that we were going into recession due to the high inflation. And all of the work the Fed had to do to fight it. So if we break through 442 on the downside it is likely that we’re going all the way down to 430 and possibly even lower.  So some resistance levels to pay attention to will be 448 and 452 and above 452. We have the gap to fill above 455 And then downside support levels are the support trendline at 445, the gap fill at 443 and the critical support zone right around 442. If we break critical support, then maybe the Bulls will understand they have already missed abou 10% on the NASDAQ since I called the top on July 27th at 3:40 PM

On the NASDAQ 100 QQQ we were down 1.1% to close at today 367.91 we did fill the gap we have resistance at 375 and the gap fill above 380. breaking below 366 would mean we started losing critical support  how the CPI data comes in we do get fear in the market, we’ll likely see the VIX start spiking back out above 18 yet again and then we could start to see a little bit of panic selling.

Bitcoin. We’re currently down about .57% and Bitcoin did get the bull breakout yesterday above 29,500, and today it is trying to hold that break out because the Bollinger Bands are squeezing. We need to prove the breakout is real by holding above 29,500 and the next resistance levels we need to break will be 30,000 and then 30. 10,000 and then we could start running higher towards the target at 35 to 36,000. If this is a false breakout, we need to break back down below the moving averages And do note that every moving average is right on top of the same exact price level. So this is an extremely bullish breakout as long as it holds On the retest

Tesla stock, was down just over 3% today. And it looks like we’re well on our way towards the gap at 2:35 and the retest of the bull breakout at 2:30. Again, this is a downtrend in Tesla stock until we get all the way back above 270 to 274. So the only way you’re buying Tesla is if you’re a long term bull and don’t mind accumulating at lower prices if this knife continues to fall. Short term bulls need to get back over the 50 EMA of resistance at 250 and then break that higher high breakout at 270. Otherwise, you’re looking for the gap about 235 and the retest of 230. And if we break below 230, this following knife is going to continue to fall,.


G. Allan Collins


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