Good Evening,
SPY, was up .25% with a bounce off the rising 20-day moving average. Caution is advised as the bulls must hold the support level at 436 to avoid a potential double top rejection. The critical support lies around 431, posing a significant risk if breached. Nonetheless, the bulls still have an opportunity to break out and invalidate the double top pattern by reaching a higher high above 443. Conversely, the bears would need to push below 436 to gain the upper hand. Overall, the current trend remains bullish as long as the price remains above 436.
NASDAQ 100 Triple Qs
We got a sell signal on the NASDAQ today my ace indicator flashed a Sell signal on the nasdaq.
There are many complex mathematical equations that trigger my ACE Algorithm to Flash a sell signal and 95% of he time we will get a pull back that can turn into a pretty nasty sell off. This sell signals on a Major Index like the Nasdaq are rare at this time of the year due to seasonal factors and such. We will know with absolute certainty within a minimum range of 7-10 days and sometimes sooner and the maximum time frame of anywhere 60-90 days from today. Bottom line, we bounced off the 20 day, however there is now an official downtrend visible on the hourly chart. This development is characterized by lower highs and an hourly closing lower low, indicative of a bearish trend based on price action alone. To regain control, the bulls must demonstrate their ability to break out to a higher high, like the SPY analysis. For the triple Q’s, this higher high would require a close above 371 to 372. The key levels to watch now are support between 365 and resistance at 372. The first to break out of this range is likely to emerge victorious. A dip below 365 could trigger a double top pattern, potentially leading to a retest of the neckline at 357 and critical support at 350.
Dow Jones:
The Dow Jones was up 0.64% today, bouncing off the rising 50-day EMA. However, it remains below other moving averages, with negative slopes seen on the five and 13-day EMAs. To gain momentum, the index needs to overcome the resistance at 340, which could lead to a gap fill above 342. Despite this possibility, several indicators still point to a bearish outlook, including lower highs or a potential double top pattern. If critical support between 336 and 337 is breached, an influx of selling pressure could drive the index down to 330 or lower.
Russell 2000:
The IWM ETF, was a Winner going up 1.71% today, maintaining a bullish stance after bouncing off critical support. While the index initially displayed a potential double top pattern, it failed to break below the neckline at 180, now revisiting the double top level, which could potentially turn into a triple top. However, a break above 188 could trigger a short squeeze, propelling the index to 195 or higher. It is crucial to await price action confirmation of this breakout to avoid false signals. The critical downside support lies at the break of 185, and a dip below this level could indicate a retest of critical support at 180.
VIX:
The VIX index was up 1.62% today, deviating from its usual inverse relationship with the broader indices. It is worth noting that the VIX is currently riding the upper Bollinger Band, facing resistance due to the Bollinger band’s expansion. I mentioned last week to expect the VIX to spike between 18 and 20 by mid-July, potentially exerting downward pressure and triggering a pullback in the broader indices. However, this prediction is not guaranteed. If the VIX continues to retreat below 15 and descend to lower levels around 13, the bull trend is likely to persist.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin was up 2% today, accompanied by increased trading volume. Bitcoin is still sporting a bullish flag pattern. Despite bouncing off the rising 20-day moving average and exhibiting a bullish trend, it’s prudent to wait for a breakout above 31,000 to confirm a bullish rally toward 35,000. Maintaining a bullish outlook necessitates staying above 29,500 or the breakout level of 28,000.
Apple Stock:
Apple stock was down 1.09% today, breaking the support level at 190 but finding support at the rising 20-day moving average. It is advisable to exercise caution, as a dip below 190 could result in a retest of 185. However, a break above 190 would signify a shift to a more bullish sentiment, potentially leading to a retest of the previous high at 194 or even surpassing it to reach a price target above 197.
Conclusion:
Today’s market analysis presented several important insights. While SPY, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 maintained their bullish stance, caution is advised due to potential double top patterns and the need to hold critical support levels.
