• Loading stock data...

Fake Out or Break Out

June 12, 2023
FullLogo 1 copy 2

Hey, everybody I hope everyone is enjoying the weekend. Last week was another wild one on Wall Street. My Name Is G. Allan Collins and we are going to look at some charts and talk about price action. Spy was up .18% on Friday and we are starting to break out of the Bull Flag I mentioned on Friday Morning. The bull flag was between $426-$429 on the hourly chart. As far as the measured move goes, if you take the distance from the bottom of that Bull Flag to the top of that Bull Flag and you take that measured move on the breakout. You will see we did reach that price target with Fridays Price Action we reached the price target with Fridays price action & we immediately saw selling back to down to retest the breakout as support. 

This week we will see whether SPY $429 at the breakout is going to hold as support and then take us to higher prices or if we are going to start breaking down after what looks like a false breakout created by a short squeeze that took us above resistance, and then continue to see some type of correction. We need to watch SPY $429 this coming week because if we break below SPY $429 it is possible that this was a bull trap break-out to squeeze out the last remaining bears before we correct this leg higher. It is possible we do see some type of correction because of the latest bull action that hasn’t seen any significant correction due to the 7 Big Tech stocks that have really moved this entire market. So, this week is going to be very easy as long  as you pay attention to the breakout level and on the daily chart that should happen right around the 5 Day Moving average, which is $428.14. So, continue to follow price action and let the chart do all the talking. You should manage your risk at support. If we start to break down below $428 and then trader ower then look for the gap fill at $423 and strong support at the Break-out at $420. If we do start trending lower price action will tell you, we are going to see if we continue to see more selling and if we break support. continue to follow the price action and let the chart do all the talking and let all the talking However on the bullish side we still have a Bull trend and if we continue higher this break above $430 is a Bull Flag Break out that can easily take us to the $440’s.  We need to wait for support to be lost and let the price action guide you to lower prices. 

QQQ: The Nasdaq Triple Q’s were up .38% on Friday   and the triple Q’s are still in the bull trend above all the moving averages with the price action and we have no way to know if we are going through the big tech correction unless we loose support at $347. We still 

Have the bear cave between $450-$360. If you take long trades, be careful because if we break down I am looking for $337 and the gap fill at $333 as very likely targets to  

Finish out the big tech correction because we still need to 

Correct this very massive bull run that we just saw in the tech sector. That’s just an idea, we still need price action 

To confirm it which is going to require the break down through support. The next Bull break-out is above $355 and that will take us to the next target higher at $360. 

The Dow Jones we were up .14% and the dow is still showing that bull breakout at $336 with the next upside 

Targets at $341 and $346, If we break support at $336 looks for support at the rising 20 Day moving average right around $334. 

The Vix Friday was up 1.12% and the vix is absolutely crushed below $15 there’s really nothing else to talk about regarding the Vix other than the fact that this is a very low
fear market which is exactly what we see in bull markets. 

On Bitcoin we’re down about ¼% we still have the lower high breakdown from $28,00 below $27,000 so we still have the price target at 24,000. We will not be bullish until we break to a higher high above $28,000. 

Amazon: Was down .66% on Friday with another rejection from $125 and we are starting to look a little weaker as we are breaking below the % EMA but we are still bullish above support at $121. If we break the support at $121, we have the support tend line between $114 and $117. 

NVDA was up .68% Friday, and this has been a wild ride. 

After earnings I said we should go higher but we could build a base before going higher which is exactly what is happening with NVDA it is just going sideways and building a Flag and from that flag we need to see a breakout to tell us which direction we are going next. While All of this is happening, we have the rising 20 DMA coming up to support price which will increase, and the stock will go higher as we have a price target of $427. Support is about 6% lower and then the gap fill in the low $300’s. A lot of people think we will be going down to fill. The gap. Only time will tell. We would have to break $374 But use tight stops. If NVDA does not breakdown you will Most likely lose a lot of cash. The range is $374-$398 but That breakout above $398 should take us up quick to the $420’s.Only short NVDA if it breakdown on High Volume. Odds are NVDA is still going higher because we saw a very powerful run, unless we break support I wouldn’t play around with this Monster of a stock. 

I hope everybody has a great trading day! 


G. Allan Collins 




Leave the first comment